Recent theoretical research in business cycle modelling has aimed at putting forward a unified framework for studying both short-term cycles and long-term growth. Empirical research based on structural vector-autoregression has established that the same factors which drive long-run growth also explain a large proportion of the movements of key macro variables at business cycle frequencies. The present paper aims at applying this approach to study the determinants of the post-unification downturn in Germany. The results suggest that German business cycles were not all alike. Whilst adverse supply shocks clearly matter before unification, it is primarily adverse aggregate demand shocks and a too tight monetary policy which dominate the German post-unification decline in output growth rates.
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Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number
368.
Length: Date of creation: Jul 1997 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:368
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany Fax: +49 228 73 9221 Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de/index.php?id=517
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles