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Systemic Crises and Growth

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Author Info
Romain Rancière (International Monetary Fund Research Department and Paris School of Economics)
Aaron Tornell (University of California Los Angeles and National Bureau of Economic Research)
Frank Westermann (University of Osnabrueck and CESifo)

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Abstract

Countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have, on average, grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. Because financial crises are realizations of downside risk, we measure their incidence by the skewness of credit growth. Unlike variance, negative skewness isolates the impact of the large, infrequent, and abrupt credit busts associated with crises. We find a robust negative link between skewness and GDP growth in a large sample of countries over 1960-2000. This suggests a positive effect of systemic risk on growth. To explain this finding, we present a model in which contract enforceability problems generate borrowing constraints and impede growth. In financially liberalized economies with moderate contract enforceability, systemic risk taking is encouraged and increases investment. This leads to higher mean growth but also to greater incidence of crises. In the data, the link between skewness and growth is indeed strongest in such economies. (c) 2008 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology..

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/qjec.2008.123.1.359
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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 123 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 359-406
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:123:y:2008:i:1:p:359-406

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2005. "How Does Financial Liberalization affect Economic Growth?," Seminar Papers 736, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Beck, Thorsten, 2006. "Creating an efficient financial system : challenges in a global economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3856, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2007. "Parametric and Non-parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," HEI Working Papers 14-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Thierry Tressel & Thierry Verdier, 2007. "Financial Globalization and the Governance of Domestic Financial Intermediaries," IMF Working Papers 07/47, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Philip R. Lane & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "The international financial integration of China and India," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "The Drivers of Financial Globalization," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp238, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  8. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth," MPRA Paper 5101, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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