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The Rise And Fall Of World Trade, 1870-1939

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Author Info
Antoni Estevadeordal
Brian Frantz
Alan M. Taylor

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Abstract

Measured by the ratio of trade to output, the period 1870-1913 marked the birth of the first era of trade globalization and the period 1914-1939 its death. What caused the boom and bust? We use an augmented gravity model to examine the gold standard, tariffs, and transport costs as determinants of trade. Until 1913 the rise of the gold standard and the fall in transport costs were the main trade-creating forces. As of 1929 the reversal was driven by higher transport costs. In the 1930s the final collapse of the gold standard drove trade volumes even lower. © 2001 the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 118 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 359-407
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:118:y:2003:i:2:p:359-407

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  1. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73 - End , June. [Downloadable!]
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  2. James Yetman, 2003. "Currency Unions, Trade Flows, and Capital Flows," Working Papers 182003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Frederic Mishkin, 2005. "Is Financial Globalization Beneficial?," NBER Working Papers 11891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Nicolas Péridy, 2007. "Trade Prospects of the New EU Neighborhood Policy: Evidence from Hausman and Taylor's Models," Global Economy Journal, International Trade and Finance Association, vol. 5(1), pages 7. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guillaume Daudin & Matthias Morys & Kevin H. O’Rourke, 2008. "Europe and Globalization, 1870-1914," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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