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Nonlinearities and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

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Author Info
Jean Imbs (London Business School and CEPR,)
Haroon Mumtaz (London Business School,)
Morten O. Ravn (London Business School and CEPR,)
Hélène Rey (Princeton, CEPR, and NBER,)

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Abstract

We confirm the presence of substantial nonlinearities in real exchange rate dynamics at the sectoral level. There exists zones where arbitrage is not profitable because of transaction costs, and thus mean reversion is inexistent. We compute the speed of mean reversion of sector specific real exchange rates, conditional on the existence of arbitrage as implied by our nonlinear estimations, and relate them to plausible economic determinants such as tradability and exchange rate volatility. (JEL: F36, F41, C43) Copyright (c) 2003 The European Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 1 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (04/05)
Pages: 639-649
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:1:y:2003:i:2-3:p:639-649

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  1. Luciana Juvenal & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Threshold adjustment in deviations from the law of one price," Working Papers 2008-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rodolphe Blavy & Luciana Juvenal, 2009. "Mexico's integration into NAFTA markets: a view from sectoral real exchange rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 441-464. [Downloadable!]
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  3. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, . "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2006. "International financial integration through the law of one price," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3897, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Luciana Juvenal & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Law of One Price: Nonlinearities in Sectoral Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Linda Tesar, 2005. "A Re-Examination of the Border Effect," NBER Working Papers 11706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal: aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 65, pages 73-116, Julio-Dic. [Downloadable!]
  8. Carlos Felipe Lopez Suarez & Jose Antonio Rodriguez Lopez, 2008. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 080911, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Berka, Martin, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment in law of one price deviations and physical characteristics of goods," MPRA Paper 8606, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Rodolphe Blavy & Luciana Juvenal, 2008. "Mexico's Integration into NAFTA Markets: A View from Sectoral Real Exchange Rates and Transaction Costs," IMF Working Papers 08/123, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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