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A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data

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Author Info
Suzanne McCoskey
Chihwa Kao

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Abstract

This paper proposes a residual-based Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the null of cointegration in panel data. The test is analogous to the locally best unbiased invariant (LBUI) for a moving average (MA) unit root. The asymptotic distribution of the test is derived under the null. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to study the size and power properties of the proposed test. overall, the empirical sizes of the LM-FM and LM-DOLs are close to the true size even in small samples. The power is quite good for the panels where T ≥ 50, and decent with panels for fewer observation in T. In our fixed sample of N = 50 and T = 50, the presence of a moving average and correlation between the LM-DOLS test seems to be better at correcting these effects, although in some cases the LM-FM test is more powerful. Although much of the non-stationary time series econometrics has been criticized for having more to do with the specific properties of the data set rather than underlying economic models, the recent development of the cointegration literature has allowed for a concrete bridge between economic long run theory and time series methods. Our test now allows for the testing of the null of cointegration in a panel setting and should be of considerable interest to economists in a wide variety of fields.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 17 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 57-84
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Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:17:y:1998:i:1:p:57-84

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Quah, D., 1993. "Exploiting Cross Section Variation for Unit Root Inference in Dynamic Data," Papers 549, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
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  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1990. "Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(04), pages 433-444, December. [Downloadable!]
  7. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:4:p:433-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang, 1997. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data," Econometrics 9703001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1993. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-56, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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