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Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS

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Author Info
F. FernÁndez-RodrÍguez
S. Sosvilla-Rivero
J. Andrada-FÉlix

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Abstract

This article assesses the economic significance of the non-linear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1 January 1978-31 December 1994 period, it considers nearest- neighbour non-linear predictors, transforming their forecasts into a technical trading rule, whose profitability has been evaluated against the traditional moving average trading rules, considering both interest rates and transaction costs. The results suggest that in most cases, a trading rule based on a non-linear predictor outperforms the moving average, both in terms of returns and in terms of the ideal profit and the Sharpe ratio profitability indicators.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
Pages: 113-122
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:2:p:113-122

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lee, Chun I. & Mathur, Ike, 1996. "Trading rule profits in european currency spot cross-rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 949-962, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Steve Satchell & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "An Assessment of the Economic Value of Nonlinear Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-16, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  4. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Further evidence on technical analysis and profitability of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 99-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 1999. "Exchange Rate Volatility in the EMS before and after the Fall," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 717-22, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mizrach, B, 1992. "Multivariate Nearest-Neighbor Forecasts of EMS Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S151-63, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1998. "Testing nonlinear forecastability in time series: Theory and evidence from the EMS," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 49-63, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. C.L. Osler & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1995. "Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern," Staff Reports 4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  21. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Neftci, Salih N, 1991. "Naive Trading Rules in Financial Markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov Prediction Theory: A Study of "Technical Analysis."," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 549-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alexandros E. Milionis & Evangelia Papanagiotou, 2008. "A Note on the Use of Moving Average Trading Rules to Test For Weak from Efficiency in Capital Markets," Working Papers 91, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, . "Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2002-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reyes Maroto Illera & Francisco Pérez Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2002-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto Illera, . "Regimen Changes and Duration in the European Monetary System," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Dios Palomares, Rafaela & Martínez Paz, José Miguel & Martínezcarrasco Pleite, Federico, 2006. "Including environmental variables in the effi ciency analysis: A three-step method/El análisis de efi ciencia con variables de entorno: un método de programas con tres etapas," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 477-497, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Emma García, . "Forecasting the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Can International Parities Help?," Working Papers 2003-15, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Julián Andrada Félix & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez & María Dolores García Artiles, 2004. "Non-linear trading rules in the New York Stock Exchange," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2004-05, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC. [Downloadable!]
  8. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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