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Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach

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Author Info
Garett Jones
W. Schneider

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Abstract

Human capital plays an important role in the theory of economic growth, but it has been difficult to measure this abstract concept. We survey the psychological literature on cross-cultural IQ tests and conclude that intelligence tests provide one useful measure of human capital. Using a new database of national average IQ, we show that in growth regressions that include only robust control variables, IQ is statistically significant in 99.8% of these 1330 regressions, easily passing a Bayesian model-averaging robustness test. A 1 point increase in a nation’s average IQ is associated with a persistent 0.11% annual increase in GDP per capita. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10887-006-7407-2
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economic Growth.

Volume (Year): 11 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 71-93
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:11:y:2006:i:1:p:71-93

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102931

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Related research
Keywords: Intelligence; Human capital; Economic growth; O47; J24; I20;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in Large Macroeconomic Panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/16, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hoover, Kevin, 2000. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-Country Growth Regression," Working Papers 01-1, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. "Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(3), pages 181-205, July.
  5. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bleaney, Michael & Nishiyama, Akira, 2002. " Explaining Growth: A Contest between Models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Weede, Erich & Kampf, Sebastian, 2002. "The Impact of Intelligence and Institutional Improvements on Economic Growth," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(3), pages 361-80.
  9. Neal, Derek A & Johnson, William R, 1996. "The Role of Premarket Factors in Black-White Wage Differences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 869-95, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis & Melissa Osborne, 2000. "The Determinants of Earnings: Skills, Preferences, and Schooling," Working Papers 2000-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Charles Murray, 2002. "IQ and Income Inequality in a Sample of Sibling Pairs from Advantaged Family Backgrounds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 339-343, May. [Downloadable!]
  13. Garett Jones, 2005. "IQ in the Ramsey Model: A Naive Calibration," Development and Comp Systems 0507004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Fabio Milani, 2004. "Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Macroeconomics 0401004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Comparisons of Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Eric A. Hanushek & Dennis D. Kimko, 2000. "Schooling, Labor-Force Quality, and the Growth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1184-1208, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong Wha, 1996. "International Measures of Schooling Years and Schooling Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 218-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Eric A. Hanushek & Dongwook Kim, 1995. "Schooling, Labor Force Quality, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jörg Baten & Dorothee Crayen & Joachim Voth, 2007. "Poor, Hungry and Stupid: Numeracy and the Impact of High Food Prices in Industrializing Britain, 1780-1850," Economics Working Papers 1120, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Galor, Oded & Michalopoulos, Stelios, 2006. "The Evolution of Entrepreneurial Spirit and the Process of Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 6022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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