Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo

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Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo

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NUÑEZ AMORTEGUI, Héctor Mauricio ()

Abstract

Based on the understanding of inflation forecasts as an intermediate policy objective, this paper evaluates forecasts of different inflation models in Colombia during the inflation targeting (IT) period. The evaluation is done using three different statistical methodologies. The results suggest that the best models, in terms of precision, are the Food’s Relative Price and the traditional P* models. Additionally, a multiplier analysis is performed over these models, in which the sensitivity of short and medium term forecasts to shocks in the exogenous variables is assessed

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Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA in its journal REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003709

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