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The commodity-currency view of the Australian dollar: A multivariate cointegration approach Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Dimitris Hatzinikolaou (University of Ioannina )
Metodey Polasek (Flinders University )
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Using Australian quarterly data from the post-float period 1984:1-2003:1 and a partial system, we identify and estimate two cointegrating relations, one for the interest-rate differential and the other for the nominal exchange rate. Our estimate of the long-run elasticity of the exchange rate with respect to commodity prices is 0.939, which strongly supports the widely held view that the floating Australian dollar is a ‘commodity currency’. We also find that the PPP and UIP cannot be rejected so long as commodity prices are included in the cointegrating relations. Our model outperforms the random walk model in forecasting the exchange rate in the medium run.
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Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics .
Volume (Year): VIII (2005)
Issue (Month): (May)
Pages: 81-99
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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:8:y:2005:n:1:p:81-99Contact details of provider: Postal: Av. C�rdoba 374, (C1054AAP) Capital Federal Phone: (5411) 6314-3000 Fax: (5411) 4314-1654 Email: Web page: http://www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/jae.html More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Australian dollar ; commodity currency ; cointegration ; Find related papers by JEL classification: F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Sanidas, Elias, 2005.
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