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Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and Non-residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP

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Richard K. Green

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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of different kinds of investments on the business cycle. Specifically, it examines whether residential and non-residential investment Granger cause GDP, and whether GDP Granger causes each of these types of investments. The paper uses quarterly National Income and Products Data for the period 1959 to 1992. Under a wide variety of time-series specifications, residential investment causes, but is not caused by GDP, while non-residential investment does not cause, but is caused by GDP. Thus, housing leads and other types of investment lag the business cycle. The results also suggest that policies designed to funnel capital away from housing into plant and equipment could produce severe short-run dislocations. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1540-6229.00714
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 253-270
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:25:y:1997:i:2:p:253-270

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  1. Charles Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2009. "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect," NBER Working Papers 15075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Liu Hongyu & Yun W. Park & Zheng Siqi, 2002. "The Interaction between Housing Investment and Economic Growth in China," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-60. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ricardo Sabates Land Tenure Center & UW-Madison, 2001. "The Dynamics of U.S. GDP and Investment Sub-Components," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 01-05, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chan Swee Lean, 2001. "Empirical tests to discern linkages between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore," Construction Management & Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 355-363, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96. [Downloadable!]
  7. William Miles, 2009. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Housing Investment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 173-182, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2008. "The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 14294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Stephen Malpezzi, 2000. "Tales from the Real Side: The Implications of Urban Research for Real Estate Finance in Developing and Transition Economies," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 01-02, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2008. "Asset Price Spillover, Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 351-385, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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