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Weak Identification of Forward-looking Models in Monetary Economics

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Sophocles Mavroeidis

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Abstract

Recently, single-equation estimation by the generalized method of moments (GMM) has become popular in the monetary economics literature, for estimating forward-looking models with rational expectations. We discuss a method for analysing the empirical identification of such models that exploits their dynamic structure and the assumption of rational expectations. This allows us to judge the reliability of the resulting GMM estimation and inference and reveals the potential sources of weak identification. With reference to the New Keynesian Phillips curve of Galí and Gertler ["Journal of Monetary Economics" (1999) Vol. 44, 195] and the forward-looking Taylor rules of Clarida, Galí and Gertler ["Quarterly Journal of Economics" (2000) Vol. 115, 147], we demonstrate that the usual 'weak instruments' problem can arise naturally, when the predictable variation in inflation is small relative to unpredictable future shocks (news). Hence, we conclude that those models are less reliably estimated over periods when inflation has been under effective policy control. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 66 (2004)
Issue (Month): s1 (09)
Pages: 609-635
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:66:y:2004:i:s1:p:609-635

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  1. Bill Russell, 2007. "Non-Stationary Inflation and Panel Estimates of United States Short and Long-run Phillips curves," Discussion Papers 200, University of Dundee, Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  3. P. Siklos & M. Bohl, 2006. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Papers eg0053, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Pål Boug, Ådne Cappelen and Anders Rygh Swensen, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve revisited," Discussion Papers 500, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe : does it fit or does it fail?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2007. "Using Firm Optimization to Evaluate and Estimate Returns to Scale," NBER Working Papers 13666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. George Monokroussos, 2005. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and US Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 460, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bill Russell, Anindya Banerjee, 2006. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve and Non-Stationary Inflation," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Toshitaka Sekine & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Activism," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  11. CARRILLO, Julio & FÈVE, Patrick, 2004. "Some Perils of Policy Rule Regression," IDEI Working Papers 301, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  12. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 79, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Pål Boug, Ådne Cappelen and Anders Rygh Swensen, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve for a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers 460, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fanelli, Luca, 2007. "Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-based learning," MPRA Paper 1616, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Roger Bjørnstad and Ragnar Nymoen, 2006. "Will it float? The New Keynesian Phillips curve tested on OECD panel data," Discussion Papers 463, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  16. Fanelli, Luca, 2005. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve through Vector Autoregressive models: Results from the Euro area," MPRA Paper 1617, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Sarah Stölting, 2007. "Is the New Keynesian Phillips curve flat?," Working Paper Series 809, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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