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Searching for a Break in GNP

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Author Info
Christiano, Lawrence J

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Abstract

It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in postwar U.S. gross national product data. This article shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no-trend-break null hypothesis. A key part of the argument is that conventionally computed p values overstate the likelihood of the trend-break alternative hypothesis. This is because they do not take into account that, in practice, the date is chosen based on pretest examination of the data.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 10 (1992)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 237-50
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:3:p:237-50

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "What Is Left of the Multiplier Accelerator?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 150-54, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-77, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  7. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1987. "Why is consumption less volatile than income?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-20. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-27.

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